Does financial activity cause economic growth?

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial sector. Human capital allocated to financial activities will improve long-run levels but may reduce growth rates in the short run. Empirically, based on data for 93 countries during the 198090 period, it is shown that during the 1980s finance was predominantly a supply-leading determinant of economic growth. Our analysis suggests, however, that this general finding cannot be confirmed for the less developed countries, thereby giving some support to the conclusions derived from the theoretical modeling. --financial development,economic growth,financial sector,causality

Sovereign risk in a structural approach: Evaluating sovereign ability-to-pay and probability of default

We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying process. Its implicit volatility is inferred from market spreads. We demonstrate for the case of Latin America and Russia that our approach indicates default events well in advance of agencies and markets. --Sovereign Risk,Probability of Default

Contagion of currency crises: Some theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the other country. The behavior of the lowly informed investors multiplies this effect and the other country becomes more and more vulnerable. In the empirical part we focus on the Asian crisis (1997/98). Using a LOGIT approach we can show that contagion, in the sense of a crisis not explainable by economic fundamentals but by exchange rate losses resulting from investment in other countries, seems to have caused the currency crises of the Philippines and especially of Singapore. --Contagion,Currency crises,Asian crisis

Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan

We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term default risk to each maturity. Applying the Duan (1994) maximum likelihood approach, we find for Kazakhstan that the overall crisis probability was mainly driven by short-term risk, which increased from 25% in March 2007 to 80% in December 2008. Concurrently, the long-term default risk increased from 20% to only 25% during the same period. --Banking crisis,bank default,option pricing theory,compound option,liability structure

Size and Development of the Shadow Economy and of Do-it-yourself Activities in Germany

This paper presents the first MIMIC (multiple indicator multiple causes) model estimate of the size and development of the shadow economy and of do-it-yourself (DIY) activities in Germany from 1970 to 2005. By 2005, they reached a level of about 17% and 4.94%. While the shadow economy has regularly increased over the years, DIY activities – though quite sizeable – have remained more or less constant since the early 1990s. The driving forces for the shadow economy are regulation and tax burden whereas for DIY activities, the level of unemployment is the main factor.shadow economy, do-it-yourself activities, tax burden, regulation, domestic currency in circulation, unemployment, MIMIC models

The cost efficiency of German banks: a comparison of SFA and DEA

We investigate the consistency of efficiency scores derived with two competing frontier methods in the financial economics literature: Stochastic Frontier and Data Envelopment Analysis. We sample 34,192 observations for all German universal banks and analyze whether efficiency measures yield consistent results according to five criteria between 1993 and 2004: levels, rankings, identification of extreme performers, stability over time and correlation to standard accounting-based measures of performance. We find that non-parametric methods are particularly sensitive to measurement error and outliers. Furthermore, our results show that accounting for systematic differences among commercial, cooperative and savings banks is important to avoid misinterpretation about the status of efficiency of the total banking sector. Finally, despite ongoing fundamental changes in Europe?s largest banking system, efficiency rank stability is very high in the short run. However, we also find that annually estimated efficiency scores are markedly less stable over a period of twelve years, in particular for parametric methods. Thus, the implicit assumption of serial independence of bank production in most methods has an important influence on obtained efficiency rankings. --Cost Efficiency,Banks,Stochastic Frontier Approach,Data Envelopment Analysis

Comparing the German and Japanese nursing home sectors: Implications of demographic and policy differences

This research provides a comparative study of the Japanese and German nursing home sectors. Faced with aging populations, both countries share similar long-term care policies based on social insurance. However, descriptive statistics indicate significant differences in the outcomes and costs in their respective nursing home sectors. This research aims to identify the reasons for this state of affairs by examining demographic and policy differences between the two countries. To shed light on the subject from multiple angles, we conduct three types of empirical analysis—regression, the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, and data envelopment analysis—on regional data from the past decade. Our findings indicate that the different outcomes are driven by both demographic and policy differences where policy relates to long-term care as well as to additional welfare aid. In terms of policy, a key difference is found in the designs of the welfare programs for low-income elders. In Germany, our results are consistent with moral hazard due to the generous design of the welfare program, while in Japan, our results do not indicate moral hazard, which may be due to strict nursing home admission rules for welfare recipients

Hospital Policy and Productivity: Evidence from German States

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth allows for additional health care services under restricted resources. We examine whether hospital policy can stimulate hospital TFP growth. We exploit variation across German federal states in the period 1993 to 2013. State governments decide on hospital capacity planning (number of hospitals, departments and beds), ownership, medical students, and hospital investment funding. We show that TFP growth in German hospital care reflects quality improvements rather than increases in output volumes. Second-stage regression results indicate that reducing the length of stay is generally a proper way to foster TFP growth. The effects of other hospital policies depend on the reimbursement scheme: under activity-based (DRG) hospital funding, scope-related policies (privatization, specialization) come with TFP growth. Under fixed daily rate funding, scale matters to TFP (hospital size, occupancy rates). Differences in capitalization in East and West Germany allows to show that deepening capital may enhance TFP growth if capital is scarce. We also show that there is less scope for hospital policies after large-scale restructurings of the hospital sector

Measuring and comparing the (in)efficiency of German and Swiss hospitals

A nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is performed on hospitals in the federal state of Saxony (Germany) and in Switzerland. This study is of interest from three points of view. First, contrary to most existing work, patient days are not treated as an output but as an input. Second, the usual DEA assumption of a homogeneous sample is tested and rejected for a large part of the observations. The proposed solution is to restrict DEA to comparable observations in the two countries. Finally, hospital beds are treated as a discretionary input in one DEA and as a fixed input in the other, and the effect on efficiency is related to differences in hospital planning in Germany and Switzerland. Based on the comparable observations, hospitals of Saxony have higher efficiency scores than their Swiss counterparts. --International efficiency comparison,Hospitals,Data Envelopment Analysis

Country Default Probabilities: Assessing and Backtesting

We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are derived, which is problematic for backtesting. To deal with this problem, we construct likelihood ratio test statistics and quick backtesting procedures. --Sovereign default,Country risk,Default probability,Likelihood ratio test